The Patriots are not going to tank this year and they won’t be the worst team in the league, but they will be in the conversation.
Welcome to Season 13, Episode 1 of the Unconventional Preview, a serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup . . .
It’s fitting, as the Patriots begin this season of subterranean expectations with more questions than probably any edition since Bill Belichick’s first in 2000, to kick this off with . . . one more question.
What will constitute success for the 2024 Patriots?
The Patriots made the NFL’s final four 13 times during the Brady/Belichick era, including eight straight from 2011-18. Winning the AFC East felt like a formality, because it essentially was — they won the division in 17 of 19 years, including in all of Brady’s final 11 seasons here.
Disappointment in an era in which separate trios of Lombardi Trophies were collected at the beginning and end of the NFL’s greatest extended dynasty came in the nine-season “drought” from 2005-13 when the team remained exceptional but could not secure another Super Bowl win.
I bring all of this up not to suggest that we should spend this season living in the past, but to acknowledge how easy it was to take for granted when we were living in those days. Time brings perspective, and time remains undefeated.
The definition of what constitutes success for the Patriots is entirely different now. They are in the earliest stages of the long and jagged climb back to contender status.
When the season opener gets underway Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati, Jerod Mayo will officially become the first person to coach a Patriots game other than Belichick since Pete Carroll wrapped up his annoying three-season run with a win over the Ravens on Jan. 2, 2000.
The Patriots spent the No. 3 pick in the draft on North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, and he delivered some tantalizing moments in the preseason. But veteran Jacoby Brissett — a rookie third-stringer on the Super Bowl champs in 2016 — will get the starting assignment Sunday.
Why? Because of experience and familiarity with new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s system from their time together in Cleveland.
Why else? Why, really? Because it’s too risky to put a quarterback of Maye’s rawness and immense promise behind an offensive line that would struggle to block Lawrence Taylor now. Don’t fret for Brissett, the classic replacement-level quarterback. He’s being paid $8 million this year to take the literal and figurative hits. He understands the assignment.
The Patriots do feature some talented young players — cornerback Christian Gonzalez, receiver Ja’Lynn Polk, defensive lineman Keion White — as well as a small core of reliable veterans. But last year’s defense, which finished seventh in the league, allowing 301.7 yards per game, is missing stellar tackle Christian Barmore, who is out indefinitely with blood clots. The defense will also miss the Belichicks — Bill, the greatest defensive mind of all time, of course, and his son Steve, whose coaching acumen was underrated because of the thanks-dad perceptions caused by his last name.
The Patriots are not going to tank this year. They won’t have to. They won’t be the worst team in the league, but they will be in the conversation.
So back to that aforementioned question: What constitutes success for these Patriots? Playing with discipline, a sign the coach is getting through to them. Smart game management, another test for Mayo. Progress from their young players, and solutions emerging to fill the various voids. Playing Maye not only when he’s ready, but when his teammates are ready for him. Playing well enough to take positives away from a loss.
Ready or not, a new era begins Sunday.
Kick it off, Slye, and let’s get this thing started . . .
Three players worth watching other than the quarterbacks
Rhamondre Stevenson: All right, another question for you, because questions are pretty much all we have until the season starts and answers start being revealed:
Who is the Patriots’ best returning offensive player?
Some would argue on behalf of second-year receiver DeMario Douglas, who led the 2023 Patriots with 561 receiving yards and hauled in 49 passes, trailing only running back Ezekiel Elliott (51), who caught a return flight to Dallas. Douglas was an ace in the slot and a steal as a sixth-round pick, but he comes with durability questions given his size (he’s listed at 5 feet 8 inches) and willingness to operate in the danger zones.
The Patriots hope running back Rhamondre Stevenson is back to his 2022 self.
Put us down for Stevenson, even though he had an uneven 2023 season compared with his breakout 2022. Stevenson finished with 619 yards, four rushing touchdowns, and averaged 4 yards per carry in 12 games last season.
In 2022, he emerged as one of the most explosive backs in the league, running for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 5 yards per pop. That included performances of 161 yards (in Week 5 against the Lions) and 172 yards (in a bizarre Week 15 loss to the Raiders).
Curiously, Stevenson didn’t do much against the Bengals two years ago, following up that Raiders performance with 30 yards on 13 carries in Cincinnati’s 22-18 win.
The Patriots’ line ought to be better as run blockers, and Van Pelt has said the Patriots will lean heavily on the running game, something the Browns did during his time there. The Bengals were just 26th against the run last year (136.3 yards per game). The tell-tale sign that Stevenson has returned to good health and his 2022 form is if he’s doing damage after contact.
Trey Hendrickson: What we have here is a mismatch on paper that will very likely translate to the field.
The Patriots have tried Vederian Lowe (who has been bothered recently by an oblique injury, possibly suffered by lunging at a pass rusher who had blown past him) and discounted offseason pickup Chukwuma Okorafor at left tackle during preseason.
You know the old football adage: When you’re trying to talk yourself into Vederian Lowe and Chukwuma Okorafor at left tackle, you, good sir, do not have a left tackle. (I believe it was Amos Alonzo Stagg who said that first.)
The Patriots will have to account for Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson coming off the edge.
To add injury to insult, left guard Sidy Sow suffered an ankle injury in the final preseason game against the Commanders, meaning Nick Leverett could start in his place Sunday.
Having multiple uncertainties on the left side of the line is not ideal against the Bengals, whose right defensive end, Trey Hendrickson, is their most disruptive defensive player. Hendrickson had the best season of his seven-year career in 2023, tallying 17.5 of the Bengals’ 44 sacks, while adding 25 quarterback hits, 16 tackles for loss, and forcing three fumbles for the third straight season.
Hendrickson, unhappy that he is no longer among the league’s top-paid edge rushers despite being owed $31 million over this season and next, requested a trade in the offseason before eventually rescinding it. He did not get the new contract he was looking for but says he wants to remain in Cincinnati long term. By the time Sunday’s game is over, the Patriots are probably going to wish he’d held out or forced a trade.
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase, like Hendrickson, is unhappy with his contract, and he took one of those weird “I’m-just-gonna-stand-here-and-watch” approaches to training camp. He finally returned to practice Wednesday and is expected to suit up Sunday, which gives quarterback Joe Burrow his best weapon, even if the three-time Pro Bowl receiver has a bit of rust to shake off.
From the New England perspective, Chase’s return gives Gonzalez a chance to test himself against another elite receiver. Before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 4 against the Cowboys last season, Gonzalez had looked like the second coming of Stephon Gilmore, holding his own against the likes of A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, and all too briefly, CeeDee Lamb.
Gonzalez, who missed the final 13 games of his rookie season after requiring surgery for a separated shoulder, said this past week that playing against a receiver of Chase’s caliber is a “dream.”
If Gonzalez can pick up where he left off, and remain healthy in his sophomore season, he will have a strong case as the Patriots’ best defensive player.
The flashback
The Patriots and Bengals have opened the season as opponents three times — in 1972, 2001, and 2010.
Let’s consider that first one, because it’s somewhat illustrative of how they should proceed 52 seasons later.
The Bengals smoked the Patriots that Sunday, 31-7. Quarterback Jim Plunkett, who was battered in his rookie season after being the No. 1 overall pick out of Stanford, began his sophomore season under siege. He was sacked four times while completing 9 of 17 passes with two interceptions and no touchdowns.
Plunkett finished that 1972 season with eight touchdown passes and 25 interceptions while being sacked 39 times (an unofficial stat in those days, and one that doesn’t tell the full story of the pressure he faced).
Patriots fans of an older vintage — or just those with an awareness of the pre-Brady/Belichick history — know the story. Plunkett was a broken quarterback by the time the Patriots traded him to the 49ers in April 1976 for, surprisingly given his less-than-mint condition, a haul that included three first-round picks, a second-rounder, and backup quarterback Tom Owen.
Plunkett didn’t find his place until joining Oakland’s island of misfit Raiders as a backup in 1979, eventually leading them to a pair of Super Bowl victories. (If Eli Manning makes the Hall of Fame, Plunkett has a case.)
His career worked out beautifully in the end. But those who remember how it began in New England will tell you that what happened to Jim Plunkett here is exactly why you can’t play Drake Maye right now.
Grievance of the week
Chances are we’re going to have a smorgasbord of grievances this season, so let’s keep this one brief. Can we let Mayo coach an actual game before we begin suggesting he’s in over his head? Yes, his messaging has been contradictory at times, particularly when discussing the quarterback situation. Other times, he’s had to walk back comments, such as saying the Patriots were going to “burn some cash” in free agency. (The cash was not burned.) He’s seemed like . . . a rookie head coach. But we’ve known Mayo for a long time — he came here in 2008 and emerged almost instantly as a leader of the defense. We know he’s a smart guy with a lot to offer. He deserves a chance, and a prolonged one. Didn’t we learn our lesson with Joe Mazzulla?
Prediction, or how come there are no punter/wide receivers like Pat McInally anymore? …
When the Patriots and Bengals met two years ago, Burrow completed 40 of 52 passes for 375 yards and three touchdowns, while also throwing a pair of interceptions. He might put up similar numbers Sunday given the uncertainty of the Patriots’ post-Judon pass rush, and Brissett and the Patriots are nowhere near ready to keep up. Bengals 27, Patriots 13.